Adam Hitt:  Hey everyone, welcome to a special edition of 502sports.  I’m your host, Adam Hitt in Studio.

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Today, we are going to talk about the biggest event this week and the biggest event of the year in Kentucky, the 151st Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs.  The first Saturday in May is this weekend, and to kick off Derby week, we have a very special guest with us on the phone.

Cameron Littell is a horse race guru, and also works at Churchill Downs.  And it’s going to be a very busy week for him at the track this week.

So thank you, Cameron, for taking a few minutes to talk with us, and welcome to the show.

Cameron Littell:  Of course, thanks. You know, it’s that time of year where everyone has derby fever, so it wouldn’t stop me at all to want to talk about it, just how much I love it and how much fun it is. But you’re right, it is a lot of work.

Adam Hitt:  Yeah, and I know a lot of people are going to be taking off work to go spend time at the track, and just there’s big media days and all sorts of things happening this week at the track.  So it’s just a great chance for people to get away, enjoy horse racing a little bit.  And that’s really what I wanted to kind of start off by just asking you some questions about horse racing.

I know that once people kind of get into it, they start betting on horse racing, even at young ages, people go out to the track and get kind of acclimated to horse racing and learning more about it.

But what is it that you love most about horse racing and what kind of draws you to the sport?

Cameron Littell:  Well, horse racing itself is complex.  As gambling goes, it’s always hard to pick the winner.  No matter what, there’s always a chance that you lose.  But horse racing itself relates a bit differently if you’re looking at NASCAR F1, where every car might be stock built somewhat the same.  None of these horses are the same.  So the fact that you could have a horse twice the size of another horse and they’re competing at the same speed and race, really is just something that blows my mind.

The owner trainer politics is pretty interesting.  The trainer jockey politics is even more interesting.  That and then kind of just the prestige of the event.

As we’ve run 151 consecutive years, and that’s for a reason, and it’s a proven thing that I get to hold fond to my heart being from the city and getting to help put this on for everyone.

Adam Hitt:  Yeah, that’s amazing.  I think it’s just great to kind of feel the tradition of it, with all of the people, kind of the pomp and circumstance that goes into the derby, and the build up with all the derby festival and everything.  It’s just an amazing thing for the city and for horse fans around the world to kind of be able to get the Kentucky Derby experience.  Thanks for sharing that.

So I think as we kind of look at the field, right, we have 20 horses this year in the derby.  We did have a couple scratches that came up, so we had a few horses that have been added in.  With the horse named Journalism is the morning line favorite at 3 to 1.  You know, one of the things that I was noting here is that the favorite has not won the derby in the last five years.  So as we think about that, you know, coming in is kind of a pretty significant favorite at 3 to 1.  Why is Journalism and trainer Mike McCarthy such a significant favorite in this race?  And, do you agree or disagree with Journalism being the favorite here?

Cameron Littell:  So it’s an answer that comes with multiple avenues for how you take it.  So a few things to look at is Journalism’s speed up top.  If we’re looking, and the question is, all right, I’m betting on the derby, who’s the fastest horse in North America?  It’s Journalism, plain and simple.  He’s posted the fastest speed figure of the year, undefeated on the year with two big wins in the San Felipe and the San Anita Derby out in California.  And it’s impressive to say, but in both those races, he was in a field with three Bob Baffert horses, who is a prolific Hall of Fame trainer, and he beat all three of them every time.

So his resume kind of speaks for itself, if you’re more of a novice to the sport, and you’re kind of just looking around, you recognize a few names, you recognize Bob Baffert, you recognize San Anita, some of these things, he’s gone out there, he’s done impressive things at these tracks.  Not just at short distances too, these races were long distance races.  So he really proves himself there, and you go back and you watch the clips of him running in these races, he looks like he’s not running.  He looks like he’s jogging, and he’s keeping up with some of these horses.  Some of his competition in these races were other derby competitors, Citizen Bull, winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.  So the best two year old, if you will, in North America, Citizen Bull won that Breeders’ Cup Juvenile race, and Citizen Bull couldn’t even keep up with Journalism.  So that’s just a big turn on for perspective bettors and whatnot.

But there is kind of a glaring issue with journalism that once you dig a bit deeper and you look at some of these races, the two races he won out in California were five horse fields.  So the competition was a little smaller.  He’s got to get used to having 20 horses in a round.  If he can get up to that coming out of the eight slot, and he’s in the perfect slot to win, he’s not going to get too shoved.  If he comes out slow, that’s kind of his game.  If there’s a rabbit in the race, he’ll come and chase it down.  So I think that’s why he’s the main favorite of the day.

Adam Hitt:  Yeah, absolutely.  I was looking at some of the statistics for the eight slot. A pretty good spot for the favorite to be in.  You certainly don’t want to be on the inside too far or too far on the outside in this race with so many horses.  But we also have sovereignty at five to one and Sandman at six to one who, you know, Sandman has a good history of that late kick in races as well.  So that’s certainly a horse that could be there.  But there’s so many horses and so many strong pedigrees.  

I mean, if you look up and down the derby lineup here, some of the big names in the pedigree and the sires for these horses is really, really incredible.  I wondered if you had any thoughts on just how good some of these sires are for these horses coming into this year’s derby.

Cameron Littell:  I mean, yeah, a lot of recognizable names there.  American Pharaoh, Justify, the two Triple Crown winners have sons in this race.  So it’s almost a battle again a few years later, who was the better Triple Crown winner in that aspect. A lot of intimacy in this, who’s proven again and again to have great luck with sires this time of year.  And Uncle Mo as well.  I mean, it’s really all you look at.  You don’t see many horses with sires where you don’t recognize the name of a little bit.  And that’s kind of the impressive part about it is that that side of the business has become very successful with their offspring.

Adam Hitt:  Yeah, it’s pretty incredible just to see the names and the history in the final call the post for this race is pretty incredible.

So when you look at the field, one question I had for you is, you look at the trainer line, obviously, who’s the trainer for each horse.  You look at the jockey, who’s going to be riding each horse.  What kind of history do they have on that horse and in this race, but also the sire is there a combination when you’re looking at those three things, when you’re looking at a horse, are there any combinations of those that really stand out to you this year that make you think that a specific horse and rider or trainer combination could potentially pull off this Kentucky Derby win?

Cameron Littell:  Yeah, I mean, you know, a big one to start with is Umberto Rispoli out of California.  He doesn’t come east very often, but when he does, he tends to do well.  So he’s riding journalism this year.  They have been told again and again, when you see him out on the track training in the mornings, they have a great bond.  He makes these flights straight from California just to work them out.  He flies back to run at Santa Anita the same day.  That’s how much he and this horse get along.  They really have a personal touch with them.  

Looking at some of these other jockeys, they’ve been there and they’ve done the job.  Jose Ortiz is going to be on Sandman this week, looking for his first Kentucky Derby win, but that doesn’t knock the second in 2018 or the third in 2019 he had.  So he’s been super close to the top almost every time he’s been in the race.  That’s definitely something you want to take into consideration when you’re looking at these horses, is that a lot of these jocks have been there and have done the job well.

Flogging Proud is going to be on one as well.  That’s just another outstanding jockey, you know, out there for Jockey of the Year.  But at the end of the day, they’re all pros.  And speaking to some of the trainers and backside workers this week, as long as you get in the race, you all have a shot.  It’s kind of what they’re all thinking right now.  So we’ll see if you can go the distance and really be the one.

Adam Hitt:  Yeah, absolutely.  It’s going to be exciting.

So you mentioned kind of backside stories and hearing things that are happening around the track.

Is there anything that you’re kind of hearing this week or kind of leading up to Derby?

Any interesting stories that you’ve heard that you can share that you just think are interesting or stand out to you?

Cameron Littell:  Yeah, I’m not sure if you guys have heard much about Sandman, but he’s actually gained a following from his ownership group on the backside.  So Griffin Johnson, one of the owners in the group to have Sandman, has started posting him around on TikTok and Instagram, and he’s become quite popular about it.  He’s got around 2 million followers.  So he’s really bringing a new light to the sport that makes us really happy because it gets more eyes on the Kentucky Derby.  So that’s going to be a fun story to cover.  He was at the post draw.  I know Jason Werth, the MLB players and ownership group, too, as well.  They’re planning to make a strong push in this year’s Derby.  So it’ll be interesting to see.  
But all the trainers and jocks I spoke to have said that they all think they have a chance.  So that’s a good sign for a healthy field.

Adam Hitt”  Yes of course, as they all should.  So I think, you know, one of the other questions I had for you was just around, we’ve talked a little bit about the favorites here, but what’s a dark horse that you think could potentially step in here?  They may not be the furthest long shot or, you know, somebody that’s kind of middle of the pack here, but, you know, somebody that you think could really step in at a little bit longer odds and pull off the victory here and surprising people.

Cameron Littell:  For sure.  Someone you can ever count out is Bob Babbard, right?  So he’s going to have two horses in this race, one Citizen Bull and the number four Rodriguez.  They’re going to have a chance regardless, just because of the pedigree and the quality of their training.  Another good one to always count on is going to be Kenny McPeak.  He’ll have a horse in this race, render judgment number 15, that’s got Julian LePra on it, and that’s always going to be a combination that may come out to have a great success.  He won the double last year during both the Oaks and the Derby.  So you can’t count him out again this year.

Personal favorite of mine, Owen Almighty, broke his maiden at Churchill Downs, and has proven to be pretty good elsewhere.  They were a little worried about him at this distance.  They pulled him out and then put him back in the Derby, actually, so something to keep your eye on there, coming out of the 20 slot, that’s going to be a long race for him.  If he can take the distance, then he should be in some good standing as well.  But besides that, I think you have to look at Burnham Square as well.  It’s coming out at 12 to one in the morning line, but has the most points down to the Derby.  So, trainer Ian Wilkes and Brian Hernandez are pretty happy with how he’s come along.  And Brian again won the double last year with both the Wilkes and the Derby.  So, you can never count him out either.  He’s proven he can do it.

So, if they think they can take Burnham Square to the finish, then it’s going to be a good race.

Adam Hitt:  As people start to go to the track this week, they’re starting to look at, they’re starting to take a look at the racing form.  They’re starting to take a look at the forms for derby and start to kind of look at the odds.  There’s a lot of people that may be going out that, maybe this is their first time going to a horse race, maybe it’s the first time they’re betting on a race.  And, honestly, when you open up the betting program for the first, you know, the guide for the first time, you look at it, it can be very confusing for someone who doesn’t know what all of the numbers and the statistics and everything mean.  What would you kind of say from like a betting 101 perspective?  What is something that a novice, you know, horse racing fan who just opens up the betting, the betting guide here and just says, hey, I’m going to try to pick a horse.  What would you recommend for somebody who’s brand new to the sport, and how should they pick a horse for the derby?

Cameron Littell:  My favorite thing, you know, if I’m out there all day, I do love a good show pool.  If I’m picking a horse just to come in third every race, it doesn’t pay out all that much.  But if I run that money over to the next race, say, you know, I win three bucks on the first race and I make my second bet be a $3 bet, it’s always a fun thing to keep going around.  That way you can kind of follow the favorites.  You don’t have to look too hard in the book for a sneaky long shot.  You really just get to kind of follow the chalk a bit here, but still win a little bit of money.  And that’s my personal favorite thing to do.

Adam Hitt:  That’s an easy one.  It is fun for groups to kind of do the show bets and try to keep that money rolling.  I know that since you do work at Churchill Downs, there’s been quite a bit of work and upgrades and renovations that have happened this year at the track.  What are some of the things that you’re excited about, you know, some of the fans seeing for the first time this week, you know, in just some of the new upgrades and things that are available at the track?

Cameron Littell:  Last year we unveiled our brand new paddock, $180 million renovation of the store work facility that turned it around, made the spires look better, if you could even say that was possible.  But we got to explore that a bit last year, now that people kind of know what it is, they get to really explore that again this year.  Our main focus was going to be in our starting area this year, though. So we took out all the old bleachers, put some really nice seating options up, upgraded the amenities immensely, went down there and took my first tour of it today.  And I was kind of blown away by it.  I have a hard time going back to my seat if I could hang out in those spaces all day.  So it’s a real facelift for the facility in that aspect. And I think it’s going to be a great time for the people there.

Adam Hitt:  I’m looking forward to seeing that, you know, whether you’re going in person or whether you see it on TV, it should be a great, great experience at Churchill Downs.  One of the things that’s really, really important for the race is going to be the track conditions and the weather.  So, really quick, I want to toss it over to our producer, Ashley, to give us a quick weather forecast update for Saturday.

Ashley, what’s the weather looking like for the big race on Saturday?

Ashley/Producer:  Well, if the forecast holds, everything is looking really pleasant for Derby Day.  What we’re seeing right now is potentially a high in the mid-60s with a very low chance of precipitation as well as a cool breeze that might come in as well.  So that is looking excellent.  As we know, springtime in Kentucky can be very varied throughout the years.  Historical Kentucky Derby weather has been anywhere with a temperature from the 30s to the 90s.  So luckily, we’re hopefully hitting right in the middle of that and avoiding 1989 where we actually had sleet fall during Derby Day.  So nothing like that on the books.  So hopefully that forecast holds.  So we’ll have either a fast or firm track for Derby.

Adam Hitt:  All right, well, that sounds great.  Hopefully, that remains the case and we don’t get any rain.  About 20% chance there.  So it should be a nice day for Derby.

Ashley, do you have a pick for Derby?  Do you have a horse that you think is going to win the race or you want to win?

Ashley/Producer:  I am actually going for the Burnham horse because of Star Trek, honestly.  So I’m picking off the name, which I know is going to be disappointing to my father, but that’s okay.

Well, there are lots of ways to pick.  And, you know, honestly, with some of the odds, it might just be the best approach.  But Cameron, before we move over to Oaks, I wanted to get your thoughts.  I know we’ve talked about the dark horses.  We talked about some of the favorites.  But if you had to put a few bucks down on a horse for the Derby, who would you be picking and why?

Cameron Littell:  Yeah, I’m a big Louisville guy, born and raised here.  So I always like to cheer for my local and homegrown folks.  So Trina Whitbeckman, local out of Louisville, has got number 11 flying mohawk this weekend.  That’s going to be a fun one to watch going off 30 to 1.  Another local, Brad Cox, has another 30 to 1 horse in Final Gambit.  Brad having won a Derby before, another guy that has shown he can do it and having a little local swing training your horses here pretty often tends to have an advantage.  So that would get something to look out for.  So we will walk in number 3, Final Gambit, there.

Adam Hitt:  That’s awesome. I’m wondering if we’re going to see some people walking around with mohawks on Saturday as well.  That would be an interesting way to support that horse.  But we also know that Friday is the Oaks race, right?  So we have Brian Cox’s Good Cheer is the major favorite at 6 to 5.  
At the moment, one challenger here could be Bob Baffert’s horse, Tenma, which has won three straight graded stakes.  I wanted to get your take on the Oaks race here, and who may take home the lilies on Oaks Day?

Cameron Littell:  Yeah, you know, I don’t think we have too many clear favorites like we did last year with Thorpedo Anna.  I mean, horse of the year for a reason.  They call her the grizzly because she was just that impressive of a horse.  And she was a beast.  You know, weighing a couple hundred, if not 300 pounds more than every other horse in the race.  And so you kind of knew it was hers to start.  But Good Cheer really does show a lot of class and quality in her past races.  In the way she runs, it really is suitable to how she strides.  But kind of like you said, you can’t really ever count out Bob.  His horse has run some amazing races out there in California, some smaller fields as well.  But just because they’re small doesn’t mean that what she’s done is any less impressive with how her speed figures have turned out to be.  So I think it really is between those two.  No clear favorite this year, but regardless, I think it’s going to be a tale of conditions.  If we have a clean, fast track, then it should be going pretty well.  But if it’s muddy, we may see a long shot come up and sneak in.

Adam Hitt:  I’m just really excited for this week.  It sounds like we’re going to have really good weather.  
I know that the Derby Festival kind of got a little bit dampened early on with the flooding downtown that stopped the kickoff with Thunder over Louisville this year.  But we’ve had a lot of really good Derby Festival events throughout the city, with the mini and things like that.  So those are certainly some really cool events.  I know we’ve got the boat race coming up on Wednesday, but really, just looking forward to a great Derby week.  And Cameron, really wanted to thank you for sharing some of your insights today with us on 502sports for the Derby.  And I know everybody’s looking forward to putting a few dollars down on their favorite horse this week.  So I really just wanted to thank you for joining.

Ashley, thank you, producer, for jumping in with the weather here for us on 502sports.  And just make sure to follow us on all of your social platforms at 502sports and definitely go visit our friends at Take Thai with the 502sports promo codes that you can find on our social media platforms.  And just as always, good luck if you’re betting on the ponies this week.

And we will see you next time on 502sports.